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Political Horse Race: So Long Mayor Pete


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Political Horse Race: So Long Mayor Pete

Pete Buttigieg

The Candidates’ Market Report

President Trump appears to be weathering the impeachment storm well enough. Despite the articles of impeachment now being a Senate matter, with a Republican majority unconvinced of his guilt, it is beginning to seem more like a formality that he is put on trial; it certainly hasn’t impacted his chances of re-election.

In Congress, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) is enjoying her highest ever approval ratings, presumably because finally delivering the articles to the Senate was seen as a bold move. Surprisingly, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell is also at a five-year high. Despite this, the overall approval of Congress remains a slow-sinking ship.

This Week’s Major Players

Approval Ratings:

  • Donald Trump – 48% ( no change)
  • Congress – 16% ( –  1% )

What the Gamblers Say

As with most things, if you follow the money, you can’t go too far wrong. This is a selection of the odds for key races and events.

Democratic Party Nominee:

  • Joe Biden –  13/8
  • Bernie Sanders –  5/2
  • Elizabeth Warren –   7/1
  • Michael Bloomberg – 7/1
  • Pete Buttigieg –  10/1
  • Hillary Clinton – 25/1  16/1
  • Andrew Yang – 25/1
  • Amy Klobuchar – 40/1
  • Tulsi Gabbard – 100/1

With the Democratic primaries fast approaching, the early state races have come down to just two contenders: Biden and Sanders. This solidifying of position has squeezed the other candidates on their odds of winning, the big losers being Pete Buttigieg, who lost a point and is now in the fifth position, and Elizabeth Warren, who lost two.

Bernie Sanders dipped slightly, perhaps in reaction to Biden’s strong polling with black voters. It is beginning to appear that there is not enough room for two socialist candidates in the top spots. The difference in losses between Sanders and Warren suggests that the Vermont senator has the edge. How the field will look for Biden once one of the more left-leaning candidates closes up shop will prove interesting reading.

Michael Bloomberg’s decision not to go on the ballot in early voting states may turn out to be a winning strategy. Not only has he saved himself millions in ad dollars, but he also seems to be holding steady in his odds, just outside the top tier.

Primary Races

Iowa Caucus

  • Bernie Sanders –  7/5
  • Joe Biden –  13/8
  • Pete Buttigieg 4/1
  • Elizabeth Warren – 5/1

Nevada Caucus

  • Joe Biden – 4/5
  • Bernie Sanders – 13/8
  • Elizabeth Warren – 10/1

New Hampshire Primary

  • Bernie Sanders –  8/11
  • Joe Biden –  2/1
  • Pete Buttigieg –  5/1

South Carolina Primary

  • Joe Biden – 2/9
  • Bernie Sanders – 21/10
  • Elizabeth Warren – 5/1

Presidential Election:

  • Donald Trump –  8/11
  • Joe Biden –  9/2
  • Bernie Sanders – 6/1
  • Michael Bloomberg – 14/1
  • Elizabeth Warren –  22/1
  • Pete Buttigieg – 33/1
  • Andrew Yang – 40/1
  • Hillary Clinton –  50/1
  • Amy Klobuchar – 80/1
  • Mike Pence – 100/1
  • Nikki Haley – 100/1
  • Michelle Obama – 125/1
  • Tulsi Gabbard – 150/1
  • Mitt Romney – 200/1

Joe Biden has edged up a point and a half in the race for the White House, however, this is likely more to do with the flailing Democratic field rather than taking on Trump’s lead. The president maintains a healthy number one spot on 8/11, and with his approval ratings holding steady in the high 40s and Right Direction polling taking a five-point jump, this is his election to lose.

Both of the Senators endorsed by The New York Times this week took a nosedive. Amy Klobuchar is an extreme longshot at 80/1 to win the presidency, while Warren’s formerly strong position now sees her wallowing at 22/1. Pete Buttigieg, on 33/1 and with falling support in the primaries, has to be asking himself whether he should ditch his campaign and start taking offers for the number two spot on the Democratic ticket.

The odds on the Senate getting enough votes to remove President Trump from office through the impeachment trial just got a whole lot longer.

Donald Trump:

  • Senate Convicts – 12/1
  • Senate Doesn’t Convict – 1/50
  • Complete First Term – 1/12
  • How Many Republican Senators Vote to Convict Trump:
    • Zero  –  1/2
    • 15 to 19  –  16/1

Make sure to check back next week for all the numbers that count.

~

Read more from Mark Angelides.

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